The Long Investor

$JMIA

A stock that has been beaten up is possibly coming close to its judgement. A bounce at the support line looks good so far but it is too early to say if the bottom is in yet. A break out of the wedge is bullish then for me, a break down then it needs to hold $2.

$MGNI

As I have just uploaded with Grab, the same formation is forming here but it has not broken out above yet, something to watch now, if it does break out and finds support, I see no reason why it can not follow the same path as Grab and the others with the same set up. 

$GRAB

We have seen a few formations like this lately, a pole and flag (wedge) and then a break out above, seen in BABA, META, NKE and CROX. Likely to continue to complete Wave C. Watch for the extended Wave 5 of C now...do not chase though.

$MARA

Same situation as bitcoin really, a pull back is needed and where it finds support will determine it's next move. I think a break above the channel and the worst is behind Mara, indicated where the Bull case is. 

$PATH

I have cleaned this chart up and tried to leave only necessary information on it now. Wave B or Wave 2 look complete so the big question now is whether or not it can break above $15 and hold. Above its bullish, a rejection and its bearish and then has 5 waves down.

$EURN

New lows here and only 3 waves down are clear in this down trend so I believe we are in Wave 4 now before Wave 5 down is complete.

$CLNE

In a wedge now, breakout above and flip the blue historical resistance line, we are into the bull case. A break down and needs to hold the blue line below.

$ETH

Like Bitcoin, I am not convinced the bottom is in yet but this ending diagonal leads me to believe that the nuclear option of it basically collapsing to worthless territory may be gone. $700 is realistic bottom but I have set the buy zone from $1070 to $700

$CROX

Nice little parabolic move to end last week, which is typical for the end of a trend, especially wave 5. This is not where you should chase, some people would feel the urge here to buy. Smart money does not chase. 

$DKNG

Looking like an ending diagonal to finish this Wave C (amber). Once this can stay above  $10, I believe a bounce is possible to complete Wave C (red)....I think it is still too early to say that Wave C has started already.

$XPEV

Is Xpev doing what we expect Nio to do next? their wave 2 looks obvious now and a drop below the start of wave 1 and the bear case looks confirmed.

I believe NIO has a better brand and product than Xpev, my comparison comes from solely looking at their charts.

$LVMHF

I think it is safe to say that we are in the bull case, around the 1.618 fib now so a pull back is likely before completing Wave 5.

$VIX TOP 20

The upward trend over the last week in the market has invalidated the VIX chart and it is approaching a number of supports now.

A few conclusions can be drawn from this so take what you can from it. I think we can see that when a support line hits, especially the lower it goes, it tends to bounce hard....the VIX spends very little time consolidating, it hits support and bounces and then hits a resistance and then sinks.

$NIO TOP 20

I think we are all aware of the NIO chart at this stage, as we update this chart daily. Quite simply, if it gets back into the wedge and holds, then we are bullish, if not, then we go down.

The .618 and .65 FIB resistance lines are key to watch this week if it shows any momentum.

My thought process is, if this is an impulse wave since it's $8 lows (which it doesn't look like it is but if it is) Wave 1 topped out at $14 and we are in Wave 2 now, since we know Wave 2 has 3 waves,...

$KO TOP 20

Very neat trend so far, the downward trend appears to move quickly, I see very little in terms of support until the blue line. If we can get KO in the buy zone, I recommend this as a buy, it's moat and pricing power is almost next to none and I am not surprised to see Buffet viewing KO as a firm favourite.

$COST TOP 20

Very little to update from the last time we uploaded this chart, sneaking back into the wedge and it could continue deeper into the wedge but until a breakout above, I am not bullish here.

Wider buy zone here until the direction is confirmed, we should know more this week.

$HD TOP 20

HD has behaved very disciplined so it is hard to see any other scenario for now....a recession is likely to damage HD's bottom line as a slow down in the housing industry is possible.

A break down from the channel and a new low then I believe the bear case is confirmed. 

$AMD TOP 20

I think we are starting to see a theme here. Red channel and a price action showing a potential to turn bullish, if it does not break the channel then it continues lower.

New low and we are into the buy zone.

$F TOP 20

Both projections are still in play but both still lead to the same price target at $7. A recession is a tough time for cyclical stocks and you do not get more cyclical than the auto industry, Ford being the poster child for it.

Below $10.60 and the bear case is confirmed. 

$ABNB TOP 20

ABNB has broken out of the wedge so now the next test is the channel which a lot of tech stocks are in. I have added a Bull case now as though the bottom has hit just before the new year, which means we would be in Wave 1 now and a pull back for Wave 2 is next. Failure to hold Wave 2 and it continues to our new bottom as shown. I then expect it to follow the original bull impulse count in green.

$INTC TOP 20

Like we have said for a number of weeks now, Semi's are performing at a different stage to other large tech stocks. INTC is looking very strong here, it has pulled back very nicely to what could be Wave 2, bounced and took off!

My only concern is that there hasn't been any meaningful pull back since the bounce, if this does not happen, we could be looking at another Baba case, where we are in fact in Wave C as shown.

Bull case is above $32, if we see some structure, whereby a ...

$MSFT TOP 20

MSFT is a good bit below it's upper limit red resistance line and I do not see 5 waves since it's last attempt at the resistance so I am leaving the early bull case scenario out for now.

Once this stays within the channel, the bear case is in control.

$AMZN TOP 20

I uploaded an AMZN chart on Friday but I wanted to clean it up a bit and add in the bull case because a bounce at the Covid low can be seen as a strong support line. The red (3) (4) and (5) are still on the chart and again I'm still leaving towards the bear case but both options are clear to see now.

This week will be telling so I expect to upload another chart during the week as more information comes in. 

$GOOG TOP 20

The big techs are very much in the downward trend, I have added a bull case for Google, showing that Wave 2 of an impulse wave could be completed now and it is starting Wave 3...this is not what I am leaning towards but for the benefit of everyone, I think it is worth adding in, big thing to watch is the break out above the red channel and holding, $100 would be a target here. Otherwise, it proceeds down the channel towards our buy zone as shown. 

$SPY TOP 20

Ok I think it is valuable to add in the bull case because I have seen a lot of confusion over the last week and on Twitter and ultimately, someone is going to be right, a lot of people I respect are unclear what direction this is going and we are not going to stick our head in the sand and act like we are not open to being wrong.

One thing is clear, if it does enter the bull case and goes above 411 and we buy here, we have bought at the lowest risk start of the bull case, you will sti...

$BTC TOP 20

I am in no way buying this pump, for one, we do not like to see parabolic moves, as it shows repeatedly that what goes up fast, can come down even faster, this is not strength, this is people jumping in and not being disciplined. This is likely an ending diagonal again with Wave 5 still to complete.

I have raised the buy zone now to around $14000+ but I will be in no rush to buy this, especially when so many stocks will be of better value and a value we can measure, in terms of it's fu...

$AAPL TOP 20

Oddly enough, $AAPL's chart has not looked bullish and has not even tested any previous resistance in the last week, like a few stocks and indices. So again, people may be bullish about the market but I believe AAPL needs to complete Wave 5 before it can start turning bullish for me.

$AAPL accounts for 7% of the S&P (SPY) and for this stock to not show positive signs of turning bullish, I believe they heavily influence the market. 

$TSLA TOP 20

Again I've cleaned this up a bit by taking out some lines and leaving the labeled counts instead. This has been very disciplined following our count so I see no need to change anything or offer an alternative view until something drastic has changed, in spite of anyones opinion on whether we will turn bullish or not in the overall market, I believe $TSLA will still come down to complete Wave 5 and come into our buy zone.

This will be a buy for me then and I will tell all members when ...

$NKE TOP 20

This has really been strong since it's Wave A (Red) bottom and earnings, in spite of a lot of volatility, this continues its trajectory, Wave A (amber) can complete very shortly around the 0.5 Fib and we can expect a move down for Wave B (amber) then, some people may want to buy when Wave B (amber) is complete and sell when Wave C (amber) is complete. 

$PLTR TOP 20

I've cleaned up a few charts by taking out the lines and leaving in the number and letter counts instead so everything looks clearer, I am mindful that EW counts may be new to some people and a lot of lines may appear overwhelming.

I have posted PLTR few times this week so there is not a lot more to add now, I think we are in an ending diagonal at the moment, which means that waves are allowed to infringe on a previous wave, this is only allowed in Wave C and Wave 5, which is a good s...