The Long Investor

Have a great weekend!

Busy week, a lot of screen time and a lot of charts!

The Top 20 list will be uploaded as always over the weekend with commentary.

Enjoy the weekend, spend time with family, friends or loved ones and try not to think too much about the market, it will be there next week as always.

$MRNA

My thoughts are that the market was anticipated possibly another covid winter, leading to a high demand in vaccines but this did not materialise. Let's see, above the previous high this looks bullish but a rejection at the blue line and it's coming down. 

$NG1

Natural gas futures continues to follow the count, likely to hit the historical support blue line and the channel and possibly bounce from there.

$AMZN TOP 20

I am updating $AMZN earlier than this weekend because I believe the bounce this week at the Covid low has altered it's trajectory.

It is possible that this bounce now is Wave 4 like a lot of stocks we are seeing at the moment and it has had no meaningful pull backs. 

If this is an impulse wave, it is not looking structured yet. Regardless, it will need to pull back either way, if it finds support above the previous low then the bottom is in....if not then we proceed to the 1...

$NIO TOP 20 UPDATE

Two clear rejections at the channel line, breakdown from the wedge, a retest of the wedge and rejection too.

Any other chart and I would tell you this is textbook and exactly what we want to see as a rejection....but a lot of us love this company and this is a good test to separate your love for a stock and whats actually happening, we are all guilty of this.

This could very well test again but for now, we chart what we see and what has happened.

$TUP

Has been following our chart perfectly for the last few weeks, it needs to start showing signs of reversing now as it approaches the bear blue line.

$EH

Followed this Wave C (green line) nicely until it went parabolic and fast approaching the 1.27 Fib, a typical level to top out at. Since we believe this is Wave C, it is likely going to come down next for 5 waves.

$LCID

LCID, GM, F, NIO, EXPEV etc all struggling today since JPM announced today that they expect a mild recession and traditionally car manufacturing companies do not tend to do well during a recession as people will delay getting a new car in a downturn, coupled with Tesla's drastic move to lower prices ahead of this (which I think is a good move by Tesla to get ahead sooner, it will take short term pain but it will be ahead of the pack)

LCID has so far shown a good Wave 4, this may not be...

$COIN

Further to my thoughts before, this has just gone above the 0.5 Fib, between the range of .38 and .618 fib is a likely bounce for a Wave 4, I gave this the minimum chance to bounce high and set the lowest limit it could bounce to on my first chart as I felt Coin looked very weak...going from $78 to $31 being very weak.

It's a long way to the bull case but if it breaks above, then the count is invalid.

$PEP

This is a good example of Wave 5 being an ending diagonal, where waves overlap each other, only to be found in Wave 5 and C. Which is a good indication that Wave 5 is complete and we are starting the corrective phase now.

$ELAN

ABC count and it's possible it ends soon and moves towards an impulse wave, since it's inception, it's been part of a corrective ABC count.

$OSW

A break above the blue line and holds, bull case could be in control.

$TSLA TOP 20 UPDATE

Great stuff in the PM from TSLA today, we spoke yesterday that it was too early to confirm that Wave 5 was starting and then it started to turn positive towards the end of the day, so I'm glad to see we waited.

So the price action in the PM today is making a statement and I think a price below $115.50 and we could look at confirming Wave 5 and then start planning on buying when this is complete. 

$UNG

I really like the count of this chart, a nice head and shoulders at the top, almost perfect for the ABC count. I don't believe we are at the bottom yet, as the downward trend since the middle of Dec has been fairly straight with very little bounces, especially if you compare it to the bounce at the start of Dec to mid Dec which is likely a W - 2. So I suspect W - 4 starts shortly before coming down to around $8.

$SOFI

I am rooting for $SOFI to do well as I like disruptive stocks, especially those that can improve the banking system, first real test will be breaking out of this channel and then the $6.53 resistance. Big week for banks ahead!

$FUBO

Getting a very well needed bounce here, formed a based, built strength, back tested and moving nicely up. Breaking out of the channel will be the real test for $Fubo.

$LYFT

First target is now hit, the retest of the wedge gave this strength to climb higher.

$WISH

Turned bullish 3cent higher than our target but it has been flying since! Testing the bear/bull flip line now.

$RIG

ABC count here.

$H

Looking to benefit from the opening up of hotels worldwide now and a break above the blue line will confirm this. A break down from the channel and we are in the corrective phase.

$BTC TOP 20

At the upper end of the channel now, like a lot of stocks too, pushing their limits, looking extended like stocks, at 82 on the daily RSI and peaked at 90 on the hourly, I suspect it will need to come down shortly. 

$NIO TOP 20 UPDATE

The battle continues, still has not been able to get back into the channel, smaller wedge broke down but i'm giving it the benefit that it has stayed in a large wedge.

The .65 Fib appears to be the end point of this wedge so let's see if it can get there. 

$SPY TOP 20 UPDATE

Just a quick update, as from the brief yesterday, the .618 Fib has acted as resistance and defended twice and got rejected. The price has stayed above the parallel bear flag since, we would like to see this break down below $394.50 to feel like we are out of the woods.

So far we have not experienced any meaningful pump yet and the bears are still in control.

$PSNY

Our original ABC (amber) line has started a little early above the .88 fib which is a good sign, so I have added in the Impulse Green count now, incase it can break out above the previous resistance, the blue line needs to flip to turn bullish. 

$MDB

I'm leaning towards the bear case here, unless it starts showing signs bullish signs, above $220 and it is bullish for me.

$LLY

A few requests for this but no changes, it's in the top 3 most overvalued companies in terms of fundamentals using PE as a metric. Likely this will need to come down next, unless it can stay in the channel.

$TSM

Semi's are performing quite well here and possibly the first out the trap to start turning bullish, testing our bull case now, a flip from resistance to support and the bull case could be in.

$JPM

Still in a corrective count but theres a rally here into earnings, notice the short dip for Wave B in amber, we are seeing this a lot lately, notably in Baba, which is a hallmark ABC move.

$JNJ

Head and shoulders pattern likely forming which translate to a Wave 3, 4 & 5 and Waves A, B & C.

$NFLX

Straight upward trend for Wave B amber, likely to come down just as disciplined.