The Long Investor

$HD TOP 20 UPDATE

Down heavy in the PM after releasing their earnings report and showing a decline in sales....from my update over the weekend, we said that we would be surprised to see a good earnings, considering the downturn in building activity. So we called this very well and the chart has been brilliant here since we started charting this.

Moving nicely down Subwave 3 now, I want to see this below $280 next and that will confirm that this is going lower and we will be expecting the bear case and bu...

$JD - RC -

Like $BABA it has shown a positive move since holding at a very important level, in this case at the previous low on the blue line, big test next will be breaking above the 50 Day MA on the daily chart at $38.

With a FWD PE of 11, it is also similar to $BABA which has a FWD PE of 10. Michael Burry has also added to his $JD position too in the last quarter, he appears bullish on Chinese Tech......and so are we.

$ADA

Maintaining the 200 Day MA and at the 0.618 Fib, the structure here is very good, we should be watching for a break above the 50 Day MA and the blue line above, these are the next 2 test levels....the big one will be going above the previous high at $0.46.

A lot of you know that I am not a big crypto fan, that being said, I am a big fan of EW Theory, so my own bias aside, if the setup is looking good, I will put my own feelings aside, take advantage and execute. I have added here.

$TSLA TOP 20 UPDATE

I continue to see only 3 Waves for Subwave 4 here and the selling pressure appears to be still present. It is below the 50 Day MA again now and I feel, if it loses the $164 yellow support line, this is likely to move down further.

The bottom of the wedge trend line cuts exactly through the 0.618 Fib where I have Wave 2 set, this was not done deliberately by me, the Wave 2 point was set long before the wedge was added, so I believe the $146 target is an important point

$TDOC

Very little to update here but I know a lot of members are keen to watch how this moves, so I have no issues updating it regularly. 

It is another stock that has moved well since hitting the 0.88 Fib and holding, still a lot to do here but I do like the set up.

I will be looking for a break above the bull channel and holding, this will put $TDOC in a strong position for more upside.

$COIN

I have added in a wedge it has formed here, it is still below the important blue line after getting rejected but it enjoyed a positive day from the market yesterday. As long as it stays below the blue line, the count shown is in play.

It may move between the ranges of the wedge in the mean time and we will watch to see which side it breaks to.

$ABNB TOP 20 UPDATE

It is quite remarkable at times to see how powerful the Fib levels are at finding support and resistance levels. We have shown for a number of weeks, maybe months here that we expect the price to come down to the 0.65 Fib and enter the buy zone here.

It has done exactly that now. So far it has been holding well too, after gap filling down to $104.21.

The RSI and MACD are in a good position to start a move to the upside too, both are showing reversal indications.

I have added...

$PLTR TOP 20 UPDATE

Big drop since hitting the previous high and at our blue line, it came all the way down to the 50 Day MA on the 1hr chart and then bounced, we will see how it behaves after this bounce but if we look at the MACD, it is almost a carbon copy of what happened in Mid Feb after its earnings then.

So I am still leaning towards the gap fill for now, it may test the blue line again and if it rejects for a third time, it will certainly come down and look to gap fill.

For now, I recommend t...

$DAL

Moving within the range of the small bull flag still and being held above the 0.618 Fib, the trend line as part of the larger wedge, I have added while it has consolidated in this area.

This is a long term hold for me, so I will continue to add on any substantial dips. 

This chart is showing that a break out from this wedge and we are into a possible Subwave 3 of Wave 3, this is why I like this set up and their fundamentals are impressive.

I expect they will make a larg...

$ZM

I am impressed with how $ZM is behaving now, dropped deep into the buy zone, found support, consolidated and then started a structured move higher, and just above the 200 Day MA now and back out of the buy zone. It is now up 10% since its lows.

These buy zone levels are important, I work hard on them and it takes me considerable time to make sure they are right, that is why I do not have them on every chart. 

I think we are still in Wave 1 here of Wave C so I will be watching...

$BABA

$JD and $BIDU have both reported this week already and both have reported really good earnings, $BABA is next on Thursday with their report being released before the US market is open.

So far $BABA has moved very well and structured since bouncing on the 0.887 Fib level, the political tensions appear to be decreasing between the US and China, at least for now and Soft Bank appear to have stopped its relentless selling.....Michael Burry also released his updated holdings yesterday and he...

$NIO TOP 20 UPDATE

Very little to add here, I spoke above Subwave 4 possibly being complete now, so if we are in Subwave 5 now, the bounce yesterday was likely wave 1 of Subwave 5, I am sure people are aware now that each Subwave has 5 waves in it for Wave 1, 3 and 5, and 3 waves in Subwave 2 and 4.

I have added a resistance trend line from the tops of each peaks and it aligns very well with the 200 Day MA now on the 1hr chart, we can use this as a metric to see if the trend changes, so far we can see tha...

$BUD - RC -

$BUD has had disastrous ad campaign lately, I won't get into what they did but they did not read their market very well. 

Up until that Ad got released, this was looking like a very nice structured impulse wave and their fundamentals are strong, so it backed up this structure too.....but there definitely appears to be a 'boycott blues' campaign happening now and I believe in some areas around the US, their average sales are down -25%....this will hurt their bottom line. 

$GEO - RC -

Earnings has bounced this well but has stopped out at the 200 Day MA here, where we had already set Wave 4 and at the 1.618 Fib level too.....I feel this will reject here and start moving down next to complete Wave 5.

$NU - EARNINGS OUT TODAY

Earnings out after the close today, the chart is looking very interesting here, just at the blue resistance line, after going on a strong run here since $4. A positive earnings and this could go higher to complete Wave 3, a negative report and it rejects at this blue line and comes down to complete Wave C in red.......if you are going to take the risk on this, use a stop loss.

$FOUR - RC -

What a beautiful structured set up here. Textbook impulse wave so far. Hovered around the 1.618 Fib, for Wave 3, couldn't go higher so came back down the 1 Fib and held 3 times, this is where we always set Wave 4, the 200 Day MA is coming up to meet the price action too and can be seen as another support line.

So let's see if it can continue to hold support and start moving up for Wave 5 now.

$DM - RC -

So far it has held at the 0.887 Fib and looking to recapture the 0.78 Fib level next, it still has a lot to do to move to the targets above however. The Price drop just before earnings was a bit dubious, it was looking positive and then a large influx of selling pressure came in, leading up to earnings.....possibly some people were aware that their earnings would not beat. 

I still think there is a positive future for $DM, they need to produce a consistent stream of earnings now to...

$BAC

Very clear direction here. Under the 50 Day MA and moving down in sync, the RSI is bearish and the MACD is trending bearish too. What I will be waiting for here is how it behaves at the 1.618 Fib level and $25.60, it is a possible support level, losing this level would be a big hit for its share price and we can look forward to another -10% drop then.

Still we wait here as this trend downwards.

$JPM

The neckline is a bit unorthodox here but there is a head and shoulders pattern formed, after getting rejected heavily at the 0.887 Fib level, in line with where Subwave A topped out.

My count has not changed here, in spite of the positive earnings and our members will know that I have uploaded this same count, months before the financial issues developed and the chart has remained unchanged. So I do not believe the bottom is in yet.

$QQQ TOP 20

No changes here to last weeks chart or the previous weeks chart either, it is following our Wave 3 nicely here, the 1.618 Fib is the likely spot to see a pull back, I have $MSFT above its 1.68 Fib but $AAPL is a good bit below its 1.618 Fib, which is not a surprise to see the $QQQ somewhere in the middle, about to hit the 1.618 Fib......showing just how important both of these companies have been on the $QQQ.

So What Now?

The plan remains the same here, a pull bac...

$NKE TOP 20

Strong pull back down to the first bull flag again but it is likely pulling back to the 0.78 Fib level to complete Subwave 2 of Wave C.

The RSI on the 1hr got as low as 16, meaning it was deep in the oversold territory and the MACD is showing it is over extended from selling.

I suspect it will recover here and continue to follow our count.

On the daily chart, it is considerably above the 200 Day MA so the trend is still moving higher, so we are likely in a pull back for Subw...

$GOOG TOP 20

This $GOOG chart is unlike the other Mega Tech stocks, its chart set up is not impulsive but it has broke out above the bear channel and we have seen this from $AAPL and $MSFT, the difference between those stocks and $GOOG is that they still had a nice structured impulse wave.

If we look at the highs on the chart from Nov '21 and the decline down to Oct '22 was a Wave A, it appears that the bounce we are in now is almost perfectly set up as a Wave B bounce, with Wave C next to follow. 2023-05-15 10:15:52 +0000 UTC View Post

$GOLD TOP 20

$GOLD is just being held under the upper trend line limit, where I have had Wave 4 for a number of months now, it was looking like $GOLD would continue higher at the start of May but for now, it may have been a fake out.

The RSI and MACD are showing a clear decline in their trend, which coincides with our chart, so no changes for now, we will see how this manages the trend lines, this is a very slow mover. 

$COST TOP 20

Getting close to the top of the trend line now, it is above the 50 and 200 Day MA and Morgan Stanley raised their PT from $520 to $535 on Friday, will this be enough to push this through the trend line and flip it from resistance to support?.....I am not sure on that, I think it needs more help. 

That being said, if a recession is looming and is confirmed, $COST could benefit from a larger market as people try to save money by not buying from premium supermarkets and shopping at $C...

$HD TOP 20

Trending in the direction we want to see, the Subwave 2 was a little messy but its the days leading up to earnings, so it's likely to be met with some volatility.

Earnings are due out before the opening on Tuesday the 16th of May, I think an impressive earnings will be needed to turn this around.....and I just can't see how the last quarter, with a decline in housing activity is going to produce a good quarter.

But there is certainly a few tricks they can use, like a share buyback...

$ABNB TOP 20

Interesting week for $ABNB, it climbed very well leading up to the earnings, raised its head out of the bull flag and almost too aggressively, possibly the market was getting excited for another great earnings. They then reported and missed on earnings and gave a cautious outlook for Q2, they also announced a share buyback program, which for me is a red flag, for a company growing like $ABNB, especially after Covid has reopened.

In my update last week, I alerted a concern to see their C...

$VIX TOP 20

The momentum has slowed down here a lot, the only change is that it continues to hold on the outside of the bull channel but barely above it and barely above the previous low too.....the VIX chart is looking like there has been no news, concerns or economic worries but the reality is very different. 

$TSLA TOP 20

I upload this chart a lot but I wanted to add in a larger time scale to show what is potentially a play here.

I have also added in the downward wedge, which the bottom trend of the wedge conveniently passes the 0.618 Fib line at the $146 target....so this is very coincidental, meaning this target is still at play here, if the price action continues to reject where it did on Friday.

Again, i'll be updating this every day so we can catch changes to the trend but for now, the $146 ta...

$SPY TOP 20

I suppose there is only so many times I can say that there is no updates here to this $SPY chart. It has been moving sideways since the 17th of April now.

It is staying below the top blue line and outside of the wedge but likewise, the 50 Day MA is behaving as a shadow support line and continues to stay below the price action.

The RSI and MACD paint a different picture completely....the MACD especially is showing that it has already started its momentum change to the downside and ...

$PLTR TOP 20

I have added in the gap limits here, after opening after the earnings report with a very large and obvious gap, will history repeat itself, like it did after the last earnings report? and gap filled very quickly, it is possible. If we look at the RSI and MACD, we can we see that the two events have already started to mimic each other.

So What Now?

This would be ideal for us, if this can gap fill, it tells us exactly where we should be buying.

We will see on ...